Overcoming Bias: Anthology

Part 1: Our Thinking

Near and Far

  1. 1Abstract/Distant Future Bias
  2. 2Abstractly Ideal, Concretely Selfish
  3. 3We Add Near, Average Far
  4. 4Why We Don't Know What We Want
  5. 5We See the Sacred from Afar, to See It Together
  6. 6The Future Seems Shiny
  7. 7Doubting My Far Mind

Disagreement

  1. 8Beware the Inside View
  2. 9Are Meta Views Outside Views?
  3. 10Disagreement Is Near-Far Bias
  4. 11Others' Views Are Detail
  5. 12Why Be Contrarian?
  6. 13On Disagreement, Again
  7. 14Rationality Requires Common Priors
  8. 15Might Disagreement Fade Like Violence?

Biases

  1. 16Reject Random Beliefs
  2. 17Chase Your Reading
  3. 18Against Free Thinkers
  4. 19Eventual Futures
  5. 20Seen vs. Unseen Biases
  6. 21Law as No-Bias Theatre
  7. 22Benefit of Doubt = Bias

Part 2: Our Motives

Signaling

  1. 23Decision Theory Remains Neglected
  2. 24What Function Music?
  3. 25Politics isn't about Policy
  4. 26Views Aren't About Sights
  5. 27Why Do Bets Look Bad?
  6. 28Homo Hypocritus
  7. 29Resolving Your Hypocrisy
  8. 30Errors, Lies, and Self-Deception

Norms

  1. 31Enforce Common Norms On Elites
  2. 32Identity Norms
  3. 33Exclusion As A Substitute For Norms, Law, & Governance
  4. 34How Idealists Aid Cheaters
  5. 35Beware Mob War Strategy
  6. 36Automatic Norms
  7. 3710 Implications of Automatic Norms
  8. 38Automatic Norm Lessons
  9. 39Automatic Norms in Academia

Fiction

  1. 40Plot Holes & Blame Holes
  2. 41Fairy Tales Were Cynical
  3. 42Why Fiction Lies
  4. 43Biases Of Fiction
  5. 44Why We Fight Over Fiction
  6. 45Stories Are Like Religion
  7. 46More Stories As Religion

The Dreamtime

  1. 47This is the Dream Time
  2. 48DreamTime
  3. 49Dreamtime Social Games
  4. 50We Moderns Are Status-Drunk
  5. 51Earth: A Status Report
  6. 52On Teen Angst

Part 3: Our Institutions

Prediction Markets

  1. 53Prediction Markets "Fail" To Mooch
  2. 54Seeking Robust Credible Expertise Buyers
  3. 55Prediction Markets Need Trial and Error
  4. 56New-Hire Prediction Markets
  5. 57Shoulda-Listened Futures
  6. 58Brand Truth Narrowly

Academia

  1. 59Fixing Academia Via Prediction Markets
  2. 60Intellectual Prestige Futures
  3. 61Academic Stats Prediction Markets
  4. 62How To Fund Prestige Science

Medicine

  1. 63Medical Doubts OpEd
  2. 64Medical Market Failures

Paternalism

  1. 65Paternalism Is About Status
  2. 66Rulesy Folks Push Paternalism
  3. 67Universal Basic Dorms

Law

  1. 68Elites Must Rule
  2. 69Status App Concept
  3. 70Our Prestige Obsession
  4. 71Yay Stability Rents
  5. 72Conditional Harberger Tax Games
  6. 73Reliable Private-Enough Physical Identity
  7. 74Freedom Isn't Free
  8. 75Quality Regs Say 'High Is Good'
  9. 76Socialism: A Gift You'd Exchange?
  10. 77Vouch For Pandemic Passports
  11. 78Can We Tame Political Minds?
  12. 79Consider Reparations
  13. 80Regulating Infinity
  14. 81Privately Enforced & Punished Crime
  15. 82Fine Grain Futarchy Zoning Via Harberger Taxes

Part 4: Our Past

Farmers and Foragers

  1. 83Fear Made Farmers
  2. 84Forage vs Farm Future
  3. 85Two Types of People
  4. 86Forager v Farmer, Elaborated
  5. 87Rome As Semi-Foragers
  6. 88Self-Control Is Slavery
  7. 89School Is To Submit
  8. 90Why Grievances Grow
  9. 91The World Forager Elite

History as Exponential Modes

  1. 92The Great Cycle Rule
  2. 93The Labor-From-Factories Explosion
  3. 94Lost Advanced Civilizations

The Great Filter

  1. 95Try-Try or Try-Once Great Filter?
  2. 96Great Filter with Set-Backs, Dead-Ends
  3. 97Seeing ANYTHING Other Than Huge-Civ Is Bad News
  4. 98Our Level in the Great Filter
  5. 99At Least Two Filters
  6. 100Fertility: The Big Problem

Part 5: Our Future

Aliens

  1. 101Humans Are Early
  2. 102An Alien War Nightmare
  3. 103Non-Grabby Legacies
  4. 104Why We Can't See Grabby Aliens
  5. 105Beware General Visible Near Prey
  6. 106If The Future Is Big

UFOs

  1. 107UFOs – What The Hell?
  2. 108On UFOs-As-Aliens Priors
  3. 109My Awkward Inference
  4. 110UFO Stylized Social Facts
  5. 111Explaining Stylized UFO Facts

The Age of Em

  1. 112Why Age of Em Will Happen
  2. 113How To Not Die (Soon)
  3. 114How Does Brain Code Differ?
  4. 115Progeny Probabilities: Souls, Ems, Quantum
  5. 116Em Redistribution

Artificial Intelligence

  1. 117A.I. Old-Timers
  2. 118How Lumpy AI Services?
  3. 119A History Of Foom
  4. 120I Still Don't Get Foom
  5. 121Foom Justifies AI Risk Efforts Now
  6. 122Is The City-ularity Near?
  7. 123The Betterness Explosion
  8. 124An Outside View of AI Control
  9. 125AI Risk, Again
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